Why the NPO’s Claims About Kentucky’s 50/50 Custody Law Don’t Hold Up

The National Parents Organization (NPO) claims that Kentucky’s presumed 50/50 custody law proves equal parenting time “works” because divorce rates fell afterward. That argument sounds tidy—but it collapses under even basic scrutiny.

1. Misleading Timeline.  The timeline is misleading. Kentucky’s law went into effect in 2018, yet NPO measures divorce rates starting in 2016. Divorce statistics reflect finalized divorces, many of which were filed years earlier. You cannot credit a custody law for decisions people made before the law existed—or before anyone knew it was coming. When you compare 2018 to 2023 instead, Kentucky’s divorce decline mirrors the national decline almost exactly. There’s no evidence of a unique effect.
2. Correlation ≠ Causation.  The article confuses correlation with causation. Divorce rates have been falling nationwide for years due to demographic shifts, delayed marriage, and economic factors. Pointing to one state’s trend and declaring victory is advocacy, not analysis.
3. Ignores Destructive Families.  More troubling is what the article leaves out. The research often cited to support shared parenting explicitly excludes families with abuse, addiction, or high conflict. Those exclusions matter. They remove the very families most affected by custody presumptions. When lawmakers apply those conclusions to all families, children pay the price. (For more on this, see /abuse-and-kids/.)
4. The Illusion of Safeguards. NPO insists safeguards exist for domestic violence. On paper, perhaps. In practice, courts routinely discount abuse allegations—especially when the accused parent counters with claims of “parental alienation.” Joan Meier’s National Institute of Justice-funded research found that when fathers allege alienation, mothers’ abuse claims are believed only 23% of the time—and just 2% in child sexual abuse cases. Presumptions of equal custody don’t protect children; they raise the bar for protective parents to be believed.
5. A Few Happy Stories Aren’t Evidence.  The article also relies on anecdotes and feel-good quotes from selected families. Stories matter—but they are not evidence. We don’t make child safety policy based on who sounds happiest in a newspaper feature.
6. Child Safety First. Most critically, presumed 50/50 custody shifts the system’s focus from safety to symmetry. Children aren’t fractions. They need stability, predictability, and at least one reliably safe parent. A one-size-fits-all rule treats calm homes and chaotic homes as interchangeable. They are not.

SUMMARY:

If a law makes it harder for a protective parent to protect a child, it is not child-centered—no matter how appealing the slogan. God’s concern is always for the vulnerable, not for policies that look fair on paper while silencing those at risk. (See https://lifesavingdivorce.com/runfromabusers/.)

Children deserve individualized, evidence-based decisions—not ideological shortcuts.

ABUSE or HIGH CONFLICT? READ MORE

For a detailed breakdown of the documented problems with presumed equal custody—especially in abuse and high-conflict cases—see this post. The Hidden Danger of Requiring Equal 50/50 Child Custody: What People Don’t See