Are They Telling the Truth About Divorce? What the New Study Really Says

You might have read headlines or seen posts from groups like the Institute for Family Studies and Focus on the Family and Them Before Us suggesting that the “New research proves divorce hurts kids!” It sounds scary. But if you take a closer look at the actual study they’re bragging about—the huge Census report by Johnston, Jones, and Pope from 2025—the story is nothing like those headlines.

Let’s break it down, as if we’re explaining it to our kids.

The Big Claim from Marriage-at-any-Cost Groups

These organizations say the study proves that divorce causes big problems for kids: more teen moms, more kids ending up in prison, and more dying young. They throw around phrases like “60% increase in teen births!” and “45% more early deaths!”

That sounds giant and terrifying… unless you look for yourself.

The Real Numbers Are Actually Tiny!

Here’s what the study really found when it followed over 5 million American children (figures from Table 1, column 1 on page 50 of the study):

Likelihood of TEEN BIRTH by parents’ marital status

All figures come directly from Table 1 (page 50) in the “Divorce, Family Arrangements, and Children’s Adult Outcomes” study

Less than 1 in 100 daughters of continuously married parents had a TEEN BIRTH
Less than 2 in 100 daughters of divorce had a TEEN BIRTH

Here are the numbers they found:

• • 0.6 in 100 daughters whose parents were continuously married (or you can say 6.1 in 1000 daughters)
  • 1.5 in 100 daughters whose parents divorced during their childhood (or you can say 15 in 1000 daughters)

Likelihood of INCARCERATION by parents’ marital status

Less than 1 in 100 kids of continuously married parents were INCARCERATED
Less than 1 in 100 kids of divorce were INCARCERATED

Here are the numbers they found:

• • 0.15 in 100 kids under age 20 whose parents were continuously married (or you can say 1.5 in 1000 children)
  • 0.46 in 100 kids under age 20 whose parents divorced during their childhood, specifically between age 5-20 (or you can say 4.6 in 1000 children)

Likelihood of EARLY DEATH (MORTALITY) by parents’ marital status

Less than 1 in 100 kids of continuously married parents DIED YOUNG
Less than 2 in 100 kids of divorce DIED YOUNG

Here are the numbers they found:

• • 0.83 in 100 kids under age 25 whose parents were continuously married (or you can say 8.3 in 1000 children)
  • 1.2 in 100 kids under age 25 whose parents divorced during their childhood (or you can say 12 in 1000 children)

What do those percentages mean? Imagine 100 kids in your school:

• • Teen birth: Only about 1 kid would become pregnant and give birth if their parents stayed together, and not even 2 kids if their parents divorced.
  • Incarceration: Out of 100 kids, in either group, 99 or more will not go to jail.
  • Early death: Between 98 and 99 kids out of 100 are likely to live past their 25th birthday, no matter what.

The difference is pretty small—smaller than it sounds in those “60% increase!” headlines.

Why Do the Headlines Sound So Scary?

Those blog posts and articles are using relative numbers (percentages) to make the risk sound much larger. They want to scare you—and probably everyone else—into thinking divorce wrecks most kids’ lives. But almost all kids, whether their parents divorce or not, grow up okay. The “jump” in risk is real but it’s just going from 1 out of 100 to 2 out of 100, for example. When you see headlines such as “New Study Details the Lifelong Impact of Divorce on Children” or “Research Shows New Data on Divorce Risk,” just be aware they may be trying to keep you from noticing that the numbers are very small.

What Should We Really Learn about Divorce and Children?

Divorce is tough, and it can make things harder for children. But most kids whose parents divorce do not become teen parents, do not go to jail, and do not die early. The study also showed that the biggest reasons for trouble after divorce are things like having less money after divorce, moving to a worse neighborhood, or not seeing a much-loved parent—not the divorce alone.

What helps? Things like:

• Extra support in school
• Living in a safe place
• Having strong relationships with caring adults

The Honest Takeaway about Divorce and Kids

Be careful with scary headlines. Don’t let anyone tell you divorce “dooms” kids. 98 or 99 out of 100 kids will not have these outcomes, no matter what. The best thing adults can do for kids is help them feel loved, safe, and supported. In fact, most children of divorce who choose to marry have life-long marriages. Divorce doesn’t doom you.

So next time you see a group shouting about that “divorce study,” remember: They’re leaving out the most important part—the truth!

(Based on Johnston, Jones, & Pope, 2025, “Divorce, Family Arrangements, and Children’s Adult Outcomes”)

Below is the link to the study so you can see for yourself that the likelihood of any of these negative outcomes happening is incredibly low. And some of the negative outcomes were due to lower income, living in bad neighborhoods, and the parents’ lack of proximity. (The maximum distance they documented in their Figure 6 graph was 10 miles.)

Citation: Pope, Nolan G., Andrew C. Johnston, and Maggie R. Jones. “Divorce, Family Arrangements, and Children’s Adult Outcomes.” Center for Economic Studies Working Paper Series, CES-WP-25-28, U.S. Census Bureau, May 2025. https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2025/adrm/ces/CES-WP-25-28.pdf, accessed August 6, 2025.

Where are the figures mentioned in the study?
Data from Table 1 on page 50 of the May 2025 working paper (study): Divorce, family arrangements, and children’s adult outcomes (CES Working Paper No. 25-28). U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies. This study must have been difficult to do because the Census no longer collects data on divorce and children, but it does show names, locations, and whether a teen or adult child was incarcerated in a prison on Census Day in 2010 or if they were residential students at a college on Census Day in 2010. Apparently this study doesn’t factor in people who commuted to college. The researchers used IRS data to figure out who was married, no longer married, remarried, their income, and the ages of their children. See Table 1 (p. 50) at the end of the study,

Also here are specific quotes about their findings:
—p. 21 “Relative to the baseline teen birth rate of 1.2 percent, early divorce exposure increases teen births by roughly 60 percent.”
—p. 22 “Given the baseline mortality rate of 1.1 percent, experiencing a divorce before the age of 5 increases the risk of mortality by approximately 45 percent, similar to our event study estimates on mortality.”
—p. 22 “Experiencing a divorce between the ages of 5 and 20 raises incarceration probability by 0.15 to 0.28 percentage points. Given the baseline incarceration rate of 0.46 percent in the 2010 Census, these effects represent a 33 to 60 percent increase in incarceration likelihood…”  And page 25 states: “Comparing this to our finding that childhood divorce increases incarceration by 0.28 percentage points suggests that neighborhood changes account for roughly 29 percent of the total impact on incarceration.” Graphic designed by Gretchen Baskerville.